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Bigfoot

Snow, Snow, Snow

Were the heck is the snow?

Well last year the snow nevre stopped, and this year there is no snow! What is up with that?

I guess, I will start with the NWS Outlook for the months of Jan Feb and March and than into what the Old Farmers Almanac says:

In the short of it, its time for everyone to do the SNOW DANCE!

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

830AM EST THURSDAY DEC 15 2011

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:

1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

OR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH

OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS,

AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED

"ENSO COMPOSITES", AND ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST.

2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST

RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN

LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY

1981-2010).

3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - SOMETIMES CALLED MADDEN JULIAN

OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS.

4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA)

PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE

COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE LESS PREDICTABLE BEYOND A WEEK OR TWO IN THE

FUTURE.

5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE

VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN

REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO.

6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE

COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS

AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.

7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA

(ECCA).

8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM

(CFS). THE UPGRADED PARALLEL VERSION OF THE CFS (CFSV2) BECAME OPERATIONAL IN

LATE MARCH OF 2011. BOTH VERSIONS OF CFS ARE CURRENTLY RUN IN PARALLEL. AN

EXPERIMENTAL MODEL, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL

MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED EXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY.

9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN,

CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE

FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF OUR

FORECAST TOOLS.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC

OCEAN CURRENTLY AVERAGE ABOUT -1.0 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL. THESE SSTS ARE

ACCOMPANIED BY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION THAT INDICATE

LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. THE MEAN MAGNITUDE OF THE OBSERVED ANOMALIES

HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE PAST MONTH OR SO, AND SUGGEST WEAK TO

MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS. MOST CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT THE WEAK TO MODERATE

LA NINA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL

RETURN TO NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS BY LATE SPRING. THE CLIMATE MODELS, TOGETHER

WITH VARIOUS STATISTICAL TOOLS SUGGEST THAT LA NINA WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT

ON THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS

OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER AND INTO NEXT SPRING.

THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR JFM 2012 INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL

MEAN TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE

LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF

SOUTHERN FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF

CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE

NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, INCLUDING THE ALASKAN

PANHANDLE. THIS TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR LA NINA WINTERS.

THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR JFM 2012 ARE ENHANCED FOR

MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AS FAR NORTH

AS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR

PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF

THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE

ELEVATED FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF

THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN

ALASKA. THIS PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS ALSO TYPICAL FOR LA NINA WINTERS. ABOVE

MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED IN PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA BY MANY

CLIMATE MODELS.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS

NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

SST'S ARE BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE EQUATOR THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN

PORTION OF THE PACIFIC BASIN. SST ANOMALIES ARE BETWEEN -0.5 AND -2.0 DEGREES

C FROM JUST WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST,

WITH ANOMALIES OF -1.0 TO -2.0 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF 170 W.

NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES AVERAGED CLOSE TO -1 C FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND IN

EARLY DECEMBER. SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE UPPER 300

METERS OF THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ALSO AVERAGED NEAR -1.0 C,

ALTHOUGH THE ANOMALIES HAVE WEAKENED RECENTLY AFTER REACHING PEAK NEGATIVE

VALUES OF CLOSE TO -1.3 C IN EARLY OCTOBER. THE MAGNITUDE OF SST ANOMALIES,

TOGETHER WITH ANOMALIES IN SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH

WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN ALSO REFLECT WEAK TO

MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EQUATORIAL

PACIFIC OCEAN AVERAGED STRONGER THAN NORMAL IN THE PAST MONTH, WITH WESTERLY

WIND ANOMALIES OBSERVED AT UPPER LEVELS. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED NEAR THE

EQUATOR NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE AND WAS ENHANCED OVER PARTS OF

INDONESIA AND NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION REMAINED

ACTIVE THROUGH THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND IN EARLY DECEMBER, AND CONTRIBUTED TO

VARIABILITY IN SHORT TERM ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.

HOWEVER, MEAN CONDITIONS CLEARLY SHOW LA NINA CONDITIONS MAINTAINING WEAK TO

MODERATE STRENGTH IN THE PAST TWO MONTHS.

THE ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS HAVE BEEN PREDOMINATELY POSITIVE

SINCE SEPTEMBER. THE POSITIVE AO THIS FALL IS IN MARKED CONTRAST TO THE PAST

TWO FALL SEASONS WHICH FEATURED EPISODES OF EXTREME NEGATIVE AO VALUES.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

THERE IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG BOTH DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL SST PREDICTION

TOOLS IN THEIR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER AND INTO EARLY 2012.

SST PREDICTIONS FAVOR ANOMALIES REMAINING AT AROUND CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE

WINTER, AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE SPRING. THE SSTS PREDICTED BY A

CONSOLIDATION OF 5 SST PREDICTION MODELS RUN AT NCEP SHOW THE 3-MONTH MEAN NINO

3.4 SST ANOMALY MAGNITUDE PEAKING AT -1.1 C IN DJF 2011-2012, DIMINISHING TO

AROUND -0.5 C BY MAM 2012, AND REMAINING BETWEEN 0 AND -0.5 C THROUGH THE

REMAINDER OF 2012. THIS SUGGESTS A RETURN TO NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS BY THE

SPRING. UNTIL RECENTLY, THE CFS VERSION 2 (CFSV2) MODEL HAD BEEN PREDICTING

FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES, BUT HAS MODERATED CONSIDERABLY

IN RECENT WEEKS AND IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST BASED ON THE

CONSOLIDATION THAT SST ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND THEIR GREATEST MAGNITUDE

AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE SPRING.

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

OUTLOOKS FOR JFM THROUGH AMJ 2012 WERE PRIMARILY BASED ON THE NEW NATIONAL

MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST (NMME). THE FORECASTS STRONGLY AGREE WITH

LA NINA COMPOSITES, WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG INDIVIDUAL MODEL FORECASTS.

RECENT RUNS OF THE CFSV2 SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE TYPICAL LA NINA ATMOSPHERIC

ANOMALY PATTERNS OVER NORTH AMERICA IN COMPARISON WITH RUNS INITIALIZED A FEW

WEEKS EARLIER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WEAKER NINO REGION SST ANOMALIES

PREDICTED BY THE CFSV2 AND HAS BEEN FACTORED INTO THE FORECAST. THE CFSV2

PREDICTION OF BELOW NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC FAVORS A

PERSISTENCE OF POSITIVE AO VALUES INTO THE LATER WINTER. ALTHOUGH SKILL IN

PREDICTING THE AO IS NOT HIGH, PAST CFS PERFORMANCE SUGGEST IT HAS SOME SKILL

IN THE PREDICTION OF HIGH LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS INCREASES THE

ODDS FOR POSITIVE AO VALUES IN JFM AND FACTORS INTO A SLIGHTLY WARMER

PREDICTION FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK. THE OUTLOOKS FOR

MJJ 2012 AND BEYOND ARE BASED MOSTLY ON DECADAL TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE AND

PRECIPITATION AS INDICATED BY THE OCN TOOL AND THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JFM 2012 TO JFM 2013

TEMPERATURE

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JFM 2012 CALLS FOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE

NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE

SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC

REGION, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE

FAVORED FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, THE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, INCLUDING THE

ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY A WIDE RANGE OF TOOLS, AND

FOLLOWS THE CFS AND NMME FORECAST REASONABLY CLOSELY.

THE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2012 IS LARGELY SIMILAR TO THE JFM OUTLOOK, SINCE THE LA

NINA IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE COMMONLY LASTS INTO EARLY SPRING. THE LA NINA

SIGNAL FADES BY MAM 2012 AND BLENDS WITH THE ANOMALY PATTERN FROM LONG TERM

TEMPERATURE TRENDS BY AMJ 2012, WHICH ALSO FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN

THE SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TRENDS ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND ALONG SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN

LATE SPRING, EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE

NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY LATE SUMMER. THE TREND SIGNAL GRADUALLY FADES IN THE

FALL, HOLDING ON LONGEST IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE

RECENTLY IMPLEMENTED 1981-2010 NORMALS PERIOD IS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF

TEMPERATURES IN THE WINTER, AND IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO RELIABLY PREDICT THE

ENSO STATE FOR NEXT WINTER. THIS LEADS TO A FORECAST FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR

ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR DJF 2012-13 AND JFM 2013

EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA WHERE WARMING TRENDS ELEVATE CHANCES FOR ABOVE

NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION

THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR JFM 2012 ARE ENHANCED FOR

MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AS FAR NORTH

AS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR

PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF

THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO

ELEVATED FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF

THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN

ALASKA. THIS PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS ALSO TYPICAL OF LA NINA WINTERS. ABOVE

MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED IN PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA BY MANY

CLIMATE MODELS.

THE LA NINA RELATED FORECAST PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED INTO FMA 2012

BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE SPRING. THE EXPECTED DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS

DUE TO THE WINTERTIME LA NINA PRECIPITATION PATTERN RAISES CHANCES FOR

CONTINUED BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE

SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ALSO IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO AMJ 2012. TRENDS

FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS,

AND THE LAST TRACES OF ENSO SIGNAL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA IN AMJ 2012 ACCORDING TO

INDICATIONS FROM BOTH CCA AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE NMME FORECASTS.

THE OUTLOOKS FOR MJJ 2012 AND BEYOND ARE MOSTLY FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE,

NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SINCE PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE

FAIRLY WEAK AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PREDICTABLE CLIMATE SIGNALS TO

RELIABLY DEPART FROM THE 1981-2010 NORMALS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE A SLIGHT

ELEVATION IN THE CHANCES FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN LIMITED REGIONS OF THE

NORTHWESTERN CONUS FROM JJA TO ASO, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ALSO IN

SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN THE LATE SUMMER OR FALL. TRENDS ELEVATE THE CHANCES FOR

BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM SON

TO NDJ, AND FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE JFM SEASON.

FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING

THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3

COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES

FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT

SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE

FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT

HTTP:/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML

(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)

INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)

NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR

VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM

RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT

MONTH ON JAN 19 2012

Farmers' Almanac's long range weather predictions for 2 months.

January 2012

4th-7th. Some light snow, then clearing skies. Mid-Atlantic region remains wet.

8th-11th. Fair skies.

12th-15th. Stormy, then fair, mild weather.

16th-19th. Showers Mid-Atlantic region. Light snow and rain New England.

20th-23rd. A chance of rain or snow.

24th-27th. Storminess from the Southwest brings a dose of snow.

28th-31st. Showery, especially for Mid-Atlantic.

February 2012

1st-3rd. Rain, then fair, cold conditions.

4th-7th. Increasing clouds, cold.

8th-11th. Wet snow mixed with rain Mid-Atlantic north through New England; slushy accumulations of 4+" possible.

12th-15th. Light snow, then fair skies.

16th-19th. Unsettled.

20th-23rd. Heavy wet snow sweeps up through Mid-Atlantic across the rest of Northeast, 12+" possible; then fair, cold.

24th-29th. Spotty light snow/flurries; could turn steadier, heavier over eastern New England.

March 2012

1st-3rd. Light snow/flurries. Steadier, heavier snows along New England coast.

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